On Tuesday, the two biggest names in consumer fintech reported within hours of each other. Each booked roughly $1.4 billion of quarterly revenue. That is where the resemblance ends.

SoFi grew revenue 44%, beat estimates, raised its full-year guidance and published its first outlook for 2027. Its stock jumped about 13%. Robinhood grew revenue 12%, missed earnings expectations, and watched the crypto business that built it shrink 55%. Its stock fell about 5% after hours.

Same industry. Same revenue line. Opposite directions — because these are no longer the same kind of company. One is compounding into a bank. The other is becoming a casino with an exchange attached, and this quarter showed both the genius and the risk of that trade.

SoFi: the bank trade is working

SoFi's third quarter was a clean beat. Adjusted net revenue rose 44% year over year to a record $1.371 billion, ahead of the roughly $1.26 billion analysts expected. Adjusted EPS of $0.18 beat the $0.17 consensus, net income climbed 73% to $241 million, and adjusted EBITDA jumped 70% to $469.8 million — a 34% margin. It was SoFi's 12th consecutive profitable quarter.

The engine underneath is starting to look like a real bank's. Membership grew 35% to 17.1 million, with a record 1.2 million members added in the quarter, and total products rose 44% to 26.7 million. Deposits grew $5.8 billion in three months to $51.3 billion, funding a record $16.9 billion of loan originations. Fee-based revenue reached $571 million — 42% of the total, up from 39% last quarter — against management's long-term target of 50%. In other words, more of SoFi's money now comes from services and fees, and less from simply holding loans.

Then came the part the market actually paid for: guidance. SoFi raised its 2026 outlook to about $5.04 billion of adjusted net revenue and $0.61 of EPS, and gave its first 2027 outlook — roughly $6.4 billion of revenue and $0.90 of EPS — while saying a 17% total capital ratio funds that growth without another capital raise. CEO Anthony Noto went further, pointing to a path to 100 million products by the end of 2030, nearly four times today's count.

The warts are real but specific. Technology Platform revenue fell 24% to $87 million on one large client transition; excluding that client it grew 18%. Credit card charge-offs of 7.77% bear watching, even as personal loan charge-offs improved to 3.4%. And even after Tuesday's pop, the stock is down roughly 36% in 2026 — at around $16 it trades near 18 times the 2027 EPS SoFi just guided to. If the guide is real, that is cheap growth. The next two quarters are about proving it is.

Robinhood: the engine rotated, the profit didn't

Robinhood's quarter was a record wrapped in a miss. Total net revenue rose 12% to $1.424 billion, a hair under the $1.43 billion consensus. GAAP EPS of $0.51 missed the $0.55 estimate and fell 16% year over year; net income dropped 14% to $476 million, a figure that includes a $67 million unrealized loss from marking down its venture fund. On the adjusted EPS measure Robinhood debuted this quarter, it earned $0.60, and adjusted EBITDA hit a record $808 million.

The story of the quarter is rotation. Options revenue rose 31% to $399 million and equities revenue climbed 41% to $121 million. Event contracts — prediction markets — brought in $173 million, more than six times the year-earlier figure, on a record 16.4 billion contracts traded. For the first time, prediction markets earned more than crypto.

Crypto, meanwhile, fell 55% to $120 million, on volumes down 38%. A business that supplied about 21% of Robinhood's revenue a year ago now supplies 8.4%. One cushion: crypto revenue was up 20% from the second quarter — the year-over-year hole is partly a comparison against the 2025 mania, and those comparisons get easier from here.

The customer machine underneath is still formidable. Platform assets rose 19% to $396 billion, funded customers grew 7% to 28.7 million, and net deposits were $15.7 billion in the quarter and $71 billion over twelve months. Robinhood Chain, its own blockchain, processed more than $80 billion of decentralized exchange volume in its first quarter on mainnet, and Rothera — its joint-venture exchange with Susquehanna — passed $100 million of annualized revenue in its first full quarter.

The problems are discipline and dependence. Operating expenses grew 16%, faster than revenue's 12%. Net interest revenue fell 9% to $415 million. Record revenue produced falling GAAP profit — the casino is paying more to keep the floor full, and its biggest growth line, prediction markets, still faces state-level legal fights over whether event contracts are gambling.

The scoreboard

  • Revenue: SoFi $1.371B adjusted (+44%) vs. Robinhood $1.424B (+12%)
  • Net income: SoFi $241M (+73%) vs. Robinhood $476M (−14%)
  • Customers: SoFi 17.1M members (+35%) vs. Robinhood 28.7M funded customers (+7%)
  • Guidance: SoFi raised 2026 and introduced 2027 vs. Robinhood trimming its cost range, 2027 plan to come in January or February
  • Market verdict: SoFi +13% on the day vs. Robinhood −5% after hours

SoFi's revenue is getting more boring — interest, fees, deposits — and boring compounds. Robinhood's revenue is a heat map of what America wants to speculate on: when crypto cooled, the action moved to event contracts, and total revenue still set a record. That rotation is a genuine moat; nobody else owns both crowds. But it means Robinhood's profit is rented from the speculation cycle, while SoFi's risk is the older, duller kind — credit and execution.

What to watch next: for SoFi, whether the 2027 guideposts survive the fourth quarter, card charge-offs, and the Technology Platform comparisons easing. For Robinhood, prediction-market growth versus legal drag, crypto's easy comparisons turning into a tailwind, and whether expense growth finally drops below revenue growth.