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$AVAV · NASDAQ

AeroVironment, Inc.

🇺🇸 Industrials Aerospace & Defense
$155.54
▲ 6.02%
Market Cap$7.6B
P/E (TTM)
52W Range$135.20 – $417.86
Volume1.9M
Beta1.41

Key Statistics

Revenue$2.0B5.7%
Net Income$-202.8M
Gross Margin26.5%
Net Margin-10.1%
P/E Ratio
Forward P/E33.39
PEG Ratio1.57
P/S Ratio3.8x

Financial Performance

EBITDA$218.8M
Free Cash Flow$-25.9M
Operating Margin-2.3%
ROE-4.6%
Total Debt$850.8M
Total Cash$580.2M
Dividend Yield
EPS (TTM)$-4.06

The Signal Report

PREMIUM
Moat Rating
🛡️ Narrow Moat
★★☆☆☆
Switching Costs ●●○○○
Intangible Assets ●●○○○
Network Effect ●●○○○
Cost Advantage ●●○○○
Efficient Scale ●●○○○
Confidence: High
Fair Value
$224.40
+44.3% upside
Based on 19 analyst targets
🤖 Pulse AI Analysis

AeroVironment presents a complex picture, trading at a high forward P/E despite recent stock declines and a 'None' moat rating. While the company has demonstrated strong revenue growth and significant contract wins in its core loitering munition business, its profitability has been inconsistent, and...

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Recent Performance & Catalysts

Latest Earnings EPS of 1.84 vs Est 1.47 in Q3 2026, though Q4 2026 EPS is N/A vs Est 0.3.
Revenue Growth 133.3% TTM, driven by strong contract wins and demand for loitering munitions.
Upcoming Catalysts:
  • Continued large-scale defense contracts for loitering munitions and counter-UAS systems.
  • Successful integration and monetization of new defense technologies.
  • Improved net income and free cash flow generation.

Core Strengths & Moat Sources

Switching Costs: While military contracts can involve some vendor lock-in, the modularity and evolving nature of UAS technology limits very high switching costs over the long term, rated 2/5.
Intangible Assets: Specialized drone technology and intellectual property offer some advantage, but military contractors often compete on specific performance metrics and rapid innovation, rated 3/5.
Network Effects: No discernible network effect in its defense product sales, rated 1/5.
Cost Advantage: Specialized manufacturing and R&D are costly, and government contracting often involves competitive bidding, limiting sustained cost advantages, rated 2/5.
Efficient Scale: The defense market is characterized by multiple specialized players, and AeroVironment's scale does not provide overwhelming dominance or pricing power, rated 1/5.

Main Risks

  • Dependence on government contracts and defense spending, subject to political and budgetary shifts.
  • Competition in the rapidly evolving aerospace and defense industry.
  • Profitability concerns, as evidenced by negative net income and free cash flow despite high revenue growth.
  • High debt burden relative to cash on hand.

🐂 Bulls Say

  • Company is the leading provider of Switchblade loitering munitions, a critical and in-demand Western military system.
  • Significant contract wins, including the largest-ever Pentagon counter-UAS deal and a $186M Army delivery order, highlight strong demand.
  • Record revenue, substantial bookings ($2.7B), and a 65% jump in funded backlog demonstrate robust business momentum.
  • Current stock price near 52-week lows and a 26.7% decline over the past year present a potential buying opportunity for a growth company with strong fundamentals in its core business.

🐻 Bears Say

  • Recent termination of the SCAR space contract resulted in a $151 million impairment and highlights business diversification risks.
  • Negative net income ($-265.1M) and free cash flow ($-251.4M) despite high revenue growth raise concerns about profitability and cash generation.
  • High debt ($834.8M) relative to cash ($632.3M) indicates balance sheet strain.
  • Valuation is stretched with an N/A P/E ratio and a forward P/E of 41.13, suggesting high expectations despite inconsistent financial performance.

Financial Health

AeroVironment's financial health is concerning, marked by negative net income and free cash flow, indicating a lack of cash generation from operations. While revenue growth is strong, the substantial debt of $834.8M against cash reserves of $632.3M suggests a leveraged balance sheet that could constrain future investments or weather downturns.

Analyst Note

Despite significant contract wins and strong revenue growth, AeroVironment's profitability challenges, high debt, and 'None' moat rating warrant a cautious outlook.

Business Strategy & Outlook

AeroVironment aims to solidify its leadership in robotic systems, particularly uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) and counter-UAS technologies, for defense applications. The company focuses on expanding its core loitering munition business and leveraging innovation to secure major government contracts internationally, with an emphasis on sustainable long-term growth and profitability.

P/E (TTM)
Forward P/E
33.39
PEG Ratio
1.57
Analyst Consensus
buy

Wall Street Consensus

buy
Mean Target$224.40+44.3%
High$326.00
Low$148.57
Strong Buy
6
Buy
11
Hold
3

Total Returns

1 Year-40.7%
5 Year+67.2%
10 Year+520.0%
Year to Date-41.9%

Company Profile

AeroVironment, Inc., a defense technology provider, designs, develops, produces, delivers, and supports a portfolio of robotic systems and related services for government agencies and businesses in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Autonomous Systems; and Space, Cyber and Directed Energy. The company provides uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS), which include small and medium UAS, and kinesis command and control software; and counter-UAS and precision strike, a loitering munitions solution that deliver actionable intelligence and precision firepower modern warfighters, including precision strike, radio frequency and kinetic C-UAS, and electronic warfare

SectorIndustrials
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Employees3,991
HeadquartersArlington, VA
ExchangeNasdaqGS
Income Statement
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Earnings & Revenue Forecast

AeroVironment, Inc. reported earnings results for the periods shown below. 7 of the last 8 quarters have reported results.

2027/Q1 (Est) Forecast
Revenue Est $531.3M
2026/Q4 (Est) Forecast
Revenue Est $456.1M
EPS Est $0.40
2026-09 ✓ Beat
Revenue Actual $480.5M
EPS Actual $0.59
EPS Forecast $0.25
EPS Surprise +136.0%
2026-06 ✓ Beat
Revenue Actual $480.5M
EPS Actual $1.84
EPS Forecast $1.47
EPS Surprise +25.2%
2026-03 ✗ Miss
Revenue Actual $408.0M
EPS Actual $0.64
EPS Forecast $0.69
EPS Surprise -7.2%
2025-12 ✗ Miss
Revenue Actual $472.5M
EPS Actual $0.44
EPS Forecast $0.79
EPS Surprise -44.3%
2025-09 ✗ Miss
Revenue Actual $454.7M
EPS Actual $0.32
EPS Forecast $0.34
EPS Surprise -5.9%
2025-06 ✓ Beat
Revenue Actual $454.7M
EPS Actual $1.61
EPS Forecast $1.39
EPS Surprise +15.8%

This Signal Report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Moat ratings reflect The Signal's independent analysis framework. The Signal may hold positions in securities covered. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.