Three companies you know. Microsoft. Meta. Walmart. All three just signed nuclear power deals with Constellation Energy — Walmart's was announced yesterday, their first ever. The first retired nuclear plant restart in U.S. history is happening on their watch at Three Mile Island. They're running 19,000 megawatts of nuclear capacity at a 94.7% capacity factor — the kind of reliability number that makes renewable-only advocates stare at their shoes. Data centers don't run on vibes. They run on baseload power that never blinks. And yet $CEG sits at $264, down 36% from its 52-week high of $412.70. Something's broken with the thesis, right? Except nothing is broken at all.
The Nuclear Empire Nobody's Pricing In
Constellation runs America's largest nuclear fleet. 13 plants. 19,000+ MW of nuclear generation. Enough juice for 27 million homes — roughly 10% of all clean energy produced in this country. The $16.4 billion Calpine acquisition closed in January 2026, pushing total fleet capacity to 55 GW across gas, nuclear, and renewables. That's not an incremental bolt-on. That's a transformation. Revenue TTM hit $29.87 billion — a 63.8% jump year-over-year. Net income came in at $2.32 billion for FY2025 on $25.53 billion in full-year revenue. They just raised the dividend 10% to $0.4265 a quarter. Management isn't panicking. They're issuing debt at favorable rates, buying back stock, and signing deals that'll run for two decades.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $94.7B |
| Nuclear Fleet | 19,000+ MW (94.7% capacity factor) |
| Revenue Growth (TTM) | 63.8% YoY |
| Forward P/E | 19.61x |
| Dividend | $0.4265/quarter (+10%) |
| Analyst Target (Mean) | $360.24 (+36% upside) |
The Contract Pipeline That Broke The Utility Model
Here's where it gets unreal. Microsoft signed the Three Mile Island "Crane Clean Energy Center" restart — 835 MW, backed by a $1 billion DOE loan, FERC waiver granted June 2026, coming online in 2027. Meta locked in a 20-year power agreement on the Clinton plant last August. Walmart announced a 176 MW deal on Dresden yesterday — 15 years, their first nuclear PPA ever. CyrusOne signed a Texas data center deal in February. Maryland is proposing a 5,800 MW expansion. Think about that pipeline. These aren't letters of intent or exploratory handshakes. These are binding, decade-plus commitments from the biggest balance sheets on the planet. This isn't a utility cold-calling for contracts anymore. This is the company the AI industry is literally begging for electrons.
The Selloff Nobody Can Explain
Down 25.9% year-to-date. 36% off the high. A trailing P/E of 23x. A forward P/E barely scratching 19.6x on a company with 63.8% revenue growth. The PEG ratio would make a growth investor weep tears of joy. Analyst consensus is nearly unanimous: 26 Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell — not a single bear willing to put their name on a downside call. Mean price target of $360.24 — that's 36% upside from where it trades today. Next earnings lands August 6, 2026. Nothing in the thesis has cracked. The stock just decided to take an involuntary nap. When Meta, Microsoft, and Walmart are all signing decade-plus nuclear deals with one company, and that company trades at 19x forward earnings while growing revenues like a software stock, either the market is pricing in a catastrophe that hasn't materialized — or it's handing you the kind of setup that only shows up once a cycle. Eight weeks to earnings. That's all it takes.
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